[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _dynamic_attributes=”background_image” _module_preset=”default” background_color=”gcid-secondary-color” background_image=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9mZWF0dXJlZF9pbWFnZSIsInNldHRpbmdzIjp7fX0=@” background_enable_image=”off” custom_margin=”||0px||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”” custom_margin_phone=”||0px||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||0px||false|false” global_module=”294″ saved_tabs=”all” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22background_color%22%93}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_post_title meta=”off” featured_image=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” module_id=”blog” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”gcid-secondary-color” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”||50px||false|false” custom_padding_phone=”20px||0px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22background_color%22%93}”][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n
The start of 2026 brings relative calm in the traditional energy markets, but with several flashing indicators that energy-intensive businesses must keep firmly on their radar.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Gas prices in Europe are stable for now, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract at \u20ac28.49\/MWh. The spot price sits slightly higher at \u20ac29.19\/MWh,\u00a0nudged up\u00a0by forecasts of colder-than-average temperatures in early January. Germany, Europe\u2019s largest gas consumer, is experiencing temperatures 4.9\u00b0C below seasonal norms. While strong LNG availability and high Norwegian flows (342.6 mcm\/day) are keeping the market well supplied, forecasts point to only 26% gas storage by 1 April. If\u00a0cold weather\u00a0lingers, prices could rise rapidly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n On the power side, Belgian futures continue to mirror gas price trends. With power generation now less carbon-intensive, the historical rule linking power to 2x gas + 0.5 EUA no longer holds. Today, a more\u00a0accurate\u00a0estimate is 1.7x gas + less than 0.5 EUA. The Belgian generation mix in 2025 shows strong nuclear reliance (34%), but no major additions are expected before 2042. As demand from EVs, industry, and data\u00a0centres\u00a0grows, Elia forecasts a 4.4 GW capacity gap by 2035.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Nuclear stability\u00a0remains\u00a0a bright spot. France currently has 62 of 63 GW online, supporting regional supply during winter peaks. However, planned maintenance from February onward could tighten the system.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Geopolitical tensions are simmering. The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, following the capture of President Maduro, has so far had minimal impact on European gas markets. Venezuela\u2019s export capacity\u00a0remains\u00a0negligible. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has extended its pause on oil production increases through March 2026. Brent M+1 prices hover around $65.50\/bbl\u00a0(\u20ac32.85\/MWh), with EUA-adjusted cost nearing \u20ac52.00\/MWh.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Carbon prices\u00a0remain\u00a0high, with EUA spot at \u20ac86.33\/tCO\u2082. Auctions resume this week and could influence short-term price movements.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n To understand how these evolving market signals could affect your portfolio or risk exposure, speak with your Energy Manager about tailored risk reviews and updated hedging frameworks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen-Willems_072-scaled.jpg” title_text=”20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen Willems_072″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n European gas markets are at a pivotal moment. Spot and forward prices have dipped to their lowest in twelve months, opening a temporary window for cost-effective procurement. At the same time, structural pressures are mounting. Europe’s accelerating dependence on US LNG and the upcoming ETS2 carbon scheme are reshaping long-term energy risk.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n TTF spot gas prices have dropped to \u20ac28\/MWh, with lows of \u20ac26.50, driven by ample LNG supply, full Norwegian pipeline flows, and milder-than-expected winter temperatures. Forward prices through 2029\u00a0remain\u00a0attractive, creating a short-term opportunity for buyers. However, this market softness belies deeper volatility ahead.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Much of Europe\u2019s gas security now rests on US LNG. Following the effective ban on Russian imports, the EU may need 15\u00a0bcm\u00a0more LNG this year,\u00a0largely from\u00a0American terminals. With US project delays and surging Asian demand, Europe could soon face a squeeze. Geopolitical frictions, from supply disruptions to broader transatlantic tensions, further complicate strategic autonomy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n One of those policy risks is ETS2. From 2028, all gas consumers not already covered by ETS1 will face a carbon cost.\u00a0The expected impact is around \u20ac8\/MWh on natural gas, based on a carbon price of \u20ac45\/ton and a conversion factor of 0.182\u00a0tCO\u2082\/MWh. However, it could rise to about \u20ac18\/MWh if the carbon price were to surge to \u20ac100\/ton CO\u2082, in the absence of government regulation to keep prices low and stable during the first years.\u00a0Suppliers will manage certificates and pass costs through to clients, with pricing and\u00a0methodology\u00a0varying significantly across providers.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n These factors demand an integrated view. We urge clients to assess the value of partial or full coverage for 2028-2029 contracts now, before volatility resumes. Clients with electrification or\u00a0decarbonisation\u00a0projects underway may\u00a0benefit\u00a0from preserving spot exposure. Others may seek price certainty, even with added carbon premiums.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Your energy manager can help define a position that aligns with your operational needs, risk appetite, and transition plans. Reach out now to review your exposure to carbon costs and LNG-related risks, and to discuss how to\u00a0optimise\u00a0your 2026\u20132029 procurement strategy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/visual-Energy-Contracts-market-update-2.png” title_text=”visual Energy Contracts market update (2)” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Short-term energy markets surged last week as a cold snap swept across Europe, exposing system vulnerabilities and triggering a wave of volatility. Gas spot prices (TTF) jumped over 20% in five trading sessions, closing Friday near \u20ac37\/MWh, a level not seen since July. This rapid rise was\u00a0fuelled\u00a0not only by weather-driven demand and tighter storage levels, but also by market mechanics: widespread short positions were forcibly unwound, amplifying\u00a0price moves beyond what fundamentals alone might justify.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n On the power side, output from France’s nuclear fleet dropped due to storm-related disruptions. Only 52 out of 63 GW were online, with\u00a0Flamanville’s\u00a0reactors offline after damage to\u00a0infrastructure. While EDF forecasts 60 GW average availability in February, March is expected to dip to 55 GW due to planned maintenance.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Despite this turbulence, forward markets paint a more measured picture. TTF gas forwards softened over the week, supported by robust LNG imports and mild mid-term weather forecasts. The Netherlands, for example, saw LNG deliveries outpace pipeline volumes in 2025 for the first time. For power, the outlook\u00a0remains\u00a0cautious: opportunities exist but require restraint, especially where\u00a0new technologies\u00a0like battery storage are in play.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n For energy-intensive businesses, the message is clear:\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0let short-term price spikes derail long-term strategy. This is a time for\u00a0measured\u00a0positioning. We can help you assess exposure, balance procurement timelines, and use this volatility to your advantage without overcommitting.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Speak with your Energy Manager to understand how current market dynamics impact your contract timing, risk exposure, and flexibility strategy.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen-Willems_104-scaled.jpg” title_text=”20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen Willems_104″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n In late January, TTF spot gas surged to a seven-month high, fuelled by a combination of US winter storms, low storage levels, and a dramatic reversal in speculative positions. However, this sharp increase should be viewed in context: the fundamentals of supply and demand remain broadly unchanged.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The rally was sparked by fears of freeze-offs in US shale regions, which could have reduced LNG exports to Europe. Simultaneously, traders with short positions moved\u00a0en\u00a0masse to cover their risks, triggering a feedback loop that amplified price movements. Data from ICE\u00a0Endex\u00a0showed a 113 TWh shift from net short to net long in just one week,\u00a0the third-largest repositioning on record. The result: a ~20% price spike driven\u00a0largely by\u00a0speculative, not structural, dynamics.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Despite the short-term volatility, forward gas prices\u00a0remain\u00a0low and stable. Re-gasification capacity in Europe is expanding rapidly, with new German terminals set to double intake by 2027. For Cal 2029, gas prices\u00a0remain\u00a0under EUR 23\/MWh. Electricity forward markets show similar resilience, with Cal 2028-29 hovering below EUR 75\/MWh, even as carbon prices\u00a0remain\u00a0elevated.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n This environment presents a strategic window for energy-intensive businesses. Long-term contract opportunities\u00a0remain\u00a0attractive, despite short-term volatility. The key is distinguishing transient spikes from enduring trends.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Clients should review their forward positions now, especially for 2027\u20132029, and coordinate with their Energy Manager to time procurement around market fundamentals, not market noise.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen-Willems_017-scaled.jpg” title_text=”20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen Willems_017″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Week 1 Mild Winter, Steady Nuclear, Volatile World: What to Watch in Early 2026\u00a0 The start of 2026 brings relative calm in the traditional energy markets, but with several flashing indicators that energy-intensive businesses must keep firmly on their radar.\u00a0 Gas prices in Europe are stable for now, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":2583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-contracts","category-market-update"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3385"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3385\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4556,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3385\/revisions\/4556"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\u201cIn this environment, stability in supply is masking fragility in underlying systems.\u00a0Consumers\u00a0should stay agile\u201d Boy Curry-Lindahl, Energy Manager\u00a0<\/p>\n
Week 2<\/h3>\n
Europe\u2019s Gas Markets: Strategic Openings Amid Structural Shifts<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n
“It\u2019s a short-term dip in prices, not a long-term guarantee<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>Clients must weigh this window against mid-term supply and policy risks.”<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span> \u2014 Mustafa\u00a0<\/span>Yangin<\/span>ci<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Ene<\/span>r<\/span>gy Manag<\/span>er<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n
Week 3<\/h3>\n
Market Spike or Seasonal Fluctuation? Navigating a Volatile Energy Landscape<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n
“We’re seeing classic winter tightness layered with market psychology.\u00a0<\/span>“<\/span> \u2014 Boy Curry-Lindahl<\/span>,\u00a0Energy Manager<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n
Week 4<\/h3>\n
Gas Price Spikes Driven by Speculation, Not Supply Risk<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n
“We’re seeing extreme short-term moves, but forward gas and power prices still offer strong value for the medium term.”<\/span><\/span> \u2014 Boy Curry-Lindahl<\/span>,\u00a0Energy Manager<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n