{"id":3283,"date":"2026-01-15T19:25:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T19:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/?p=3283"},"modified":"2026-02-16T20:00:06","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T20:00:06","slug":"market-update-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/?p=3283","title":{"rendered":"Market Update December 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _dynamic_attributes=”background_image” _module_preset=”default” background_color=”gcid-secondary-color” background_image=”@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9mZWF0dXJlZF9pbWFnZSIsInNldHRpbmdzIjp7fX0=@” background_enable_image=”off” custom_margin=”||0px||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”” custom_margin_phone=”||0px||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|desktop” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||0px||false|false” global_module=”294″ saved_tabs=”all” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22background_color%22%93}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_post_title meta=”off” featured_image=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” module_id=”blog” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”gcid-secondary-color” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”||50px||false|false” custom_padding_phone=”20px||0px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22background_color%22%93}”][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Week 1<\/h3>\n

Strategic\u00a0<\/span>Hedging<\/span>\u00a0in a\u00a0<\/span>Volatile<\/span>\u00a0Winter Market:\u00a0<\/span>Why<\/span>\u00a0Timing\u00a0<\/span>and <\/span>Tailoring<\/span>\u00a0Matter<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Energy prices for 2026 are presenting a window of opportunity. Forward gas is trading around \u20ac29.76\/MWh and power near \u20ac80\/MWh, levels that invite consideration for hedging, especially with front-loaded winter demand. But as ever, timing alone doesn’t dictate strategy. What matters is how well that strategy aligns with your contract structure and operational flexibility.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For standard flat\u00a0consumption\u00a0profiles,\u00a0the\u00a0current\u00a0market\u00a0justifies\u00a0a 50%\u00a0hedge\u00a0on\u00a0annual\u00a0volumes or Q1-specific cover\u00a0for\u00a0winter-peaking\u00a0loads. For clients\u00a0with\u00a0flexible\u00a0demand,\u00a0such\u00a0as\u00a0those\u00a0integrating\u00a0battery\u00a0projects\u00a0in Q1 2026,\u00a0it\u00a0may\u00a0be\u00a0more\u00a0beneficial\u00a0to\u00a0leave\u00a0some\u00a0volume\u00a0exposed\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0spot market\u00a0to\u00a0capture\u00a0potential\u00a0low\u00a0prices\u00a0during\u00a0off-peak\u00a0periods. In these cases,\u00a0collaboration\u00a0with\u00a0our\u00a0Flex\u00a0team is\u00a0essential\u00a0to\u00a0optimise\u00a0the\u00a0outcome.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, clients with no appetite for market exposure,\u00a0such as those under percentage-based contracts with good forecasts,may opt for full coverage. Given today\u2019s pricing, that decision\u00a0isn’t\u00a0necessarily\u00a0off-base. However, those\u00a0operating\u00a0under hourly MW contracts must\u00a0proceed\u00a0cautiously. Fixing 100% of volume in advance could lead to costly summer resales if consumption dips and prices fall. For such profiles, we typically\u00a0advise\u00a0limiting the hedge to around 70%, keeping a\u00a0portion\u00a0of volume available for real-time\u00a0optimisation.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitical\u00a0developments\u00a0remain\u00a0a wildcard.\u00a0Hopes\u00a0for\u00a0a US-backed\u00a0Russia\u2013Ukraine\u00a0peace\u00a0plan have\u00a0reduced\u00a0short-term risk premiums,\u00a0pushing\u00a0prices\u00a0lower. But these\u00a0shifts\u00a0are\u00a0not\u00a0structural. Gas\u00a0flows\u00a0from\u00a0Russia\u00a0remain\u00a0constrained,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0EU\u2019s\u00a0policy\u00a0direction\u00a0aims\u00a0to\u00a0minimise\u00a0future\u00a0dependency.\u00a0This\u00a0makes\u00a0current\u00a0pricing more\u00a0about\u00a0volatility\u00a0compression\u00a0than\u00a0a permanent\u00a0supply\u00a0reset.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Weather\u00a0forecasts\u00a0suggest\u00a0a warmer-than-average\u00a0winter, but\u00a0with\u00a0forecasts\u00a0ranging\u00a00.5\u20132\u00b0C\u00a0above\u00a0normal\u00a0and\u00a0up\u00a0to\u00a010% more\u00a0precipitation,\u00a0uncertainty\u00a0remains\u00a0high.\u00a0Weekly\u00a0updates\u00a0will\u00a0be\u00a0crucial.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

“A\u00a0<\/span>good<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>price<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>doesn\u2019t<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>equal<\/span>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>good<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>strategy, <\/span>it\u2019s<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>all<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>about<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>how<\/span>\u00a0well\u00a0<\/span>it<\/span>\u00a0fits\u00a0<\/span>your<\/span>\u00a0contract\u00a0<\/span>and<\/span>\u00a0risk\u00a0<\/span>appetite<\/span>.” Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

For support in\u00a0<\/span>reviewing<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>your<\/span>\u00a02026\u00a0<\/span>procurement<\/span>\u00a0approach or\u00a0<\/span>adjusting<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>geopolitical<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>signals<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>please<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>reach<\/span>\u00a0out\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>your<\/span>\u00a0Energy Manager\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>define<\/span>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>strategy<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>aligned<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>your<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>specific<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>needs<\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen-Willems_011-scaled.jpg” title_text=”20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen Willems_011″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Week 2<\/h3>\n

LNG Glut and Steady Nuclear Output Push Prices Lower, But Risks Remain for 2026<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

Energy\u00a0markets\u00a0are\u00a0heading\u00a0into\u00a0winter on\u00a0solid\u00a0footing. France has 59 GW of\u00a0nuclear\u00a0capacity\u00a0online,\u00a0with\u00a0plans\u00a0to\u00a0ramp up\u00a0to\u00a062 GW\u00a0through\u00a0January.\u00a0This\u00a0strong baseline,\u00a0paired\u00a0with\u00a0unseasonably\u00a0mild\u00a0weather, is\u00a0reinforcing\u00a0system\u00a0stability. In Belgium,\u00a0the\u00a0closure\u00a0of Doel 2\u00a0marks\u00a0another\u00a0step in\u00a0the\u00a0nuclear\u00a0phase-out,\u00a0though\u00a0Doel 4\u00a0and\u00a0Tihange\u00a03 continue\u00a0to\u00a0operate,\u00a0pending\u00a0further\u00a0policy\u00a0decisions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On\u00a0the\u00a0gas side,\u00a0the\u00a0TTF benchmark\u00a0has\u00a0dropped\u00a0below \u20ac28\/MWh,\u00a0driven\u00a0by\u00a0record\u00a0LNG availability. Chinese import\u00a0reductions,\u00a0surging\u00a0US\u00a0and\u00a0Norwegian\u00a0supply,\u00a0and\u00a0slow\u00a0Asian\u00a0demand\u00a0growth\u00a0have\u00a0tipped\u00a0the\u00a0balance\u00a0into\u00a0surplus.\u00a0Traders\u00a0are\u00a0actively\u00a0taking\u00a0positions,\u00a0signalling\u00a0confidence\u00a0in short-term market\u00a0softness.\u00a0However,\u00a0underlying\u00a0risks\u00a0persist. US LNG\u00a0construction\u00a0delays\u00a0could\u00a0impact\u00a0supply\u00a0security in 2026,\u00a0while\u00a0any\u00a0rebound in\u00a0Asian\u00a0demand\u00a0may\u00a0trigger a\u00a0sharp\u00a0price\u00a0response.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Oil\u00a0<\/span>remains<\/span>\u00a0stable compared to last week, supported by U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with Brent holding near $65\/bbl. OPEC+ confirmed it will keep production unchanged through Q1 2026, instead of continuing the increases seen throughout this year. Meanwhile, coal prices have edged down following the downward trend in gas. Carbon markets\u00a0<\/span>remain<\/span> at similar levels to last week but stay elevated, with EUAs trading around \u20ac82\/t. December typically sees lower auction volumes, putting upward pressure on prices.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Currency<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>and<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>macroeconomic<\/span>\u00a0indicators show\u00a0<\/span>little<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>deviation<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>from<\/span> prior weeks. The euro <\/span>remains<\/span>\u00a0strong,\u00a0<\/span>and<\/span>\u00a0European\u00a0<\/span>PMIs<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>hover<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>just<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>above<\/span>\u00a050,\u00a0<\/span>suggesting<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>minimal<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>industrial<\/span>\u00a0momentum.\u00a0<\/span>Despite<\/span>\u00a0a soft\u00a0<\/span>economic<\/span>\u00a0backdrop, low\u00a0<\/span>fuel<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>costs<\/span>\u00a0are\u00a0<\/span>offering<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>breathing<\/span>\u00a0room\u00a0<\/span>for<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>energy-intensive<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>businesses<\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Forward power prices in Belgium are also beginning to\u00a0<\/span>benefit<\/span>\u00a0from the decline that was initially more pronounced in gas. Baseload contracts for 2027\u20132028 are dropping below \u20ac75\/MWh,\u00a0<\/span>representing<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>an initial<\/span>\u00a0opportunity to lock in prices, but not a clear signal to\u00a0<\/span>purchase<\/span> all your volumes. Gas markets continue their downward trend. It is an interesting moment to consider fixing prices, but this should be done cautiously. We encourage you to contact your energy manager for recommendations tailored to your situation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201cThe\u00a0<\/span>current<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>downward<\/span>\u00a0trend in\u00a0<\/span>the<\/span>\u00a0market presents a\u00a0<\/span>clear<\/span>\u00a0opportunity\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>lock<\/span>\u00a0in\u00a0<\/span>prices<\/span>, but\u00a0<\/span>it<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>should<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>be<\/span>\u00a0part of a well-<\/span>defined<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>strategy<\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span> \u2014 Mustafa\u00a0<\/span>Yangin<\/span>ci<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Ene<\/span>r<\/span>gy Manag<\/span>er<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Clients\u00a0<\/span>with<\/span>\u00a0exposure\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>the<\/span>\u00a02026\u20132029 horizon\u00a0<\/span>should<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>stay<\/span>\u00a0alert\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>changing<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>fundamentals<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>Speak<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>your<\/span>\u00a0energy manager\u00a0<\/span>to<\/span>\u00a0review\u00a0<\/span>hedging<\/span>\u00a0options\u00a0<\/span>that<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>balance<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>today\u2019s<\/span>\u00a0pricing\u00a0<\/span>with<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>tomorrow\u2019s<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>uncertainty<\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen-Willems_053-scaled.jpg” title_text=”20251209_AYA_Lifestyle_\u00a9Jeroen Willems_053″ _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row make_equal=”on” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” _builder_version=”4.27.5″ _module_preset=”default” width=”90%” width_tablet=”70%” width_phone=”90%” width_last_edited=”on|tablet” max_width=”900px” module_alignment=”center” custom_padding=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”|5%|||false|false” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||||false|false” inline_fonts=”ABeeZee” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n

Week 3<\/h3>\n

Bearish Gas Markets Offer Relief, but Risks Still Linger<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

This week saw further softening in European gas and power\u00a0<\/span>markets<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0t<\/span>he TTF spot price declined<\/span>. <\/span>Forward contracts also trended down, reflecting weak seasonal demand and persistent oversupply. Notably, storage levels\u00a0remain\u00a0high for this time of year, with reserves at 75% full, just 10 percentage points below last year, despite ongoing winter drawdowns.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fundamentally, the market is well-supplied. LNG deliveries\u00a0remain\u00a0robust, and Norwegian exports continue to\u00a0stabilise\u00a0the system. Commercial traders have\u00a0capitalised\u00a0on these conditions, pushing net long positions to a four-year high. As a result, TTF briefly dipped below \u20ac28\/MWh, a level not seen in recent months.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet this optimism may prove fragile. The International Energy Agency now projects a record oil surplus in 2026 of up to 3.84 million barrels per day. While this is easing pressure on gas-switching economics in the short term, coal prices are also slipping, strengthening the case for coal-fired generation in some markets. Meanwhile, global LNG markets\u00a0remain\u00a0finely balanced: if the US or Qatar face project delays, or if a cold snap hits Asia, the picture could flip quickly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the power side, prices are up slightly from last week after a period of declines. France\u2019s\u00a0Flamanville\u00a03 nuclear reactor is now\u00a0operating\u00a0at 100% capacity, providing much-needed stability to the Central West European grid. Belgium\u2019s Doel 2 reactor has officially shut down, but Doel 4 and\u00a0Tihange\u00a03, granted 10-year extensions, remain online, ensuring domestic capacity through 2035 pending further policy decisions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile today\u2019s market is calm, structural risks\u00a0remain.\u00a0We\u2019re\u00a0advising clients to\u00a0monitor\u00a0closely and stay flexible.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Boy Curry-Lindahl<\/span>,\u00a0Energy Manager<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Energy-intensive clients should remain vigilant. The current downturn offers some margin relief, but any unexpected disruption,\u00a0geopolitical or climatic,\u00a0could reverse trends rapidly. As 2026 planning continues, timing and hedging strategies must be carefully aligned with each client\u2019s operational needs and risk appetite.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/wp-content\/uploads\/Energy-Manager-Vacancy.jpg” title_text=”Energy Manager Vacancy” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Week 1 Strategic\u00a0Hedging\u00a0in a\u00a0Volatile\u00a0Winter Market:\u00a0Why\u00a0Timing\u00a0and Tailoring\u00a0Matter\u00a0 Energy prices for 2026 are presenting a window of opportunity. Forward gas is trading around \u20ac29.76\/MWh and power near \u20ac80\/MWh, levels that invite consideration for hedging, especially with front-loaded winter demand. But as ever, timing alone doesn’t dictate strategy. What matters is how well that strategy aligns with your […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":2625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-contracts","category-market-update"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3283"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3508,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3283\/revisions\/3508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aya.studiofrend.be\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}